Towards understanding the effect of uncertainty in the number of contributors to DNA stains

Abstract 

DNA evidence recovered from a scene or collected in relation to a case is generally declared as a mixture when more than two alleles are observed at several loci. However, in principle, all DNA profiles may be considered to be potentially mixtures, even those that show not more than two alleles at any locus. When using a likelihood ratio approach to the interpretation of mixed DNA profiles it is necessary to postulate the number of potential contributors. However, this number is never known with certainty. The possibility of a, say three-person mixture, presenting four or fewer peaks at each locus of the CODIS set was explored by Paoletti et al. [D.R. Paoletti, T.E. Doom, C.M. Krane, M.L. Raymer, D.E. Krane, Empirical analysis of the STR profiles resulting from conceptual mixtures, J. Forensic Sci. 50 (2005) 1361–1366]. In this work we extend this analysis to consider the profiler plus and SGM plus multiplices. We begin the assessment of the risk associated with current practice in the calculation of LR's. We open the discussion of possible ways to surmount this ambiguity.

Keywords: Likelihood ratio, Mixtures, Binary model