Abstract
The performance of any model used to analyse DNA profile evidence should be tested
using simulation, large scale validation studies based on ground-truth cases, or alignment
with trends predicted by theory. We investigate a number of diagnostics to assess
the performance of the model using Hd true tests. Of particular focus in this work is the proportion of comparisons to
non-contributors that yield a likelihood ratio (LR) higher than or equal to the likelihood
ratio of a known contributor (LRPOI), designated as p, and the average LR for Hd true tests. Theory predicts that p should always be less than or equal to 1/LRPOI and hence the observation of this in any particular case is of limited use. A better
diagnostic is the average LR for Hd true which should be near to 1. We test the performance of a continuous interpretation
model on nine DNA profiles of varying quality and complexity and verify the theoretical
expectations.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: January 17, 2015
Accepted:
January 16,
2015
Received in revised form:
January 13,
2015
Received:
November 24,
2014
Identification
Copyright
© 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
