Highlights
- •21,473 individuals tested from Hungarian Offender DNA Databank.
- •All statistical and forensic efficiency parameters were calculated.
- •No genetic substructure was detected by STRUCTURE analysis.
- •Allele frequency dataset was compared with a previous one from the same population.
- •The new dataset provides less biased and more precise estimates of LR.
Abstract
When the DNA profile from a crime-scene matches that of a suspect, the weight of DNA
evidence depends on the unbiased estimation of the match probability of the profiles.
For this reason, it is required to establish and expand the databases that reflect
the actual allele frequencies in the population applied. 21,473 complete DNA profiles
from Databank samples were used to establish the allele frequency database to represent
the population of Hungarian suspects. We used fifteen STR loci (PowerPlex ESI16) including
five, new ESS loci. The aim was to calculate the statistical, forensic efficiency
parameters for the Databank samples and compare the newly detected data to the earlier
report. The population substructure caused by relatedness may influence the frequency
of profiles estimated. As our Databank profiles were considered non-random samples,
possible relationships between the suspects can be assumed. Therefore, population
inbreeding effect was estimated using the FIS calculation. The overall inbreeding
parameter was found to be 0.0106. Furthermore, we tested the impact of the two allele
frequency datasets on 101 randomly chosen STR profiles, including full and partial
profiles. The 95% confidence interval estimates for the profile frequencies (pM) resulted
in a tighter range when we used the new dataset compared to the previously published
ones. We found that the FIS had less effect on frequency values in the 21,473 samples
than the application of minimum allele frequency. No genetic substructure was detected
by STRUCTURE analysis. Due to the low level of inbreeding effect and the high number
of samples, the new dataset provides unbiased and precise estimates of LR for statistical
interpretation of forensic casework and allows us to use lower allele frequencies.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: May 19, 2015
Accepted:
May 14,
2015
Received in revised form:
May 11,
2015
Received:
February 6,
2015
Identification
Copyright
© 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
