Highlights
- •We present a Bayesian network that can assist in associating donors and cell types.
- •A literature overview on the sensitivity and specificity of three cell type tests.
- •The BN is linked with a software package for interpreting mixed DNA profiles.
- •A sensitivity analysis in order to examine the added value of additional tests.
Abstract
In forensic casework, evidence regarding the type of cell material contained in a
stain can be crucial in determining what happened. For example, a DNA match in a sexual
offense can become substantially more incriminating when there is evidence supporting
that semen cells are present.
Besides the question which cell types are present in a sample, also the question who
donated what (association) is very relevant. This question is surprisingly difficult,
even for stains with a single donor. The evidential value of a DNA profile needs to
be combined with knowledge regarding the specificity and sensitivity of cell type
tests. This, together with prior probabilities for the different donor-cell type combinations,
determines the most likely combination.
We present a Bayesian network that can assist in associating donors and cell types.
A literature overview on the sensitivity and specificity of three cell type tests
(PSA test for seminal fluid, RSID saliva and RSID semen) is helpful in assigning conditional
probabilities. The Bayesian network is linked with a software package for interpreting
mixed DNA profiles. This allows for a sensitivity analysis that shows to what extent
the conclusion depends on the quantity of available research data. This can aid in
making decisions regarding further research.
It is shown that the common assumption that an individual (e.g. the victim) is one
of the donors in a mixed DNA profile can have unwanted consequences for the association
between donors and cell types.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: August 10, 2016
Accepted:
August 9,
2016
Received in revised form:
June 7,
2016
Received:
March 9,
2016
Identification
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© 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
