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Predictive values in Forensic DNA Phenotyping are not necessarily prevalence-dependent

Published:November 13, 2017DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2017.11.006
      In March 2017, we published an original research paper in Forensic Science International: Genetics about the use of conditional probabilities in Forensic DNA Phenotyping (FDP) [
      • Caliebe A.
      • Walsh S.
      • Liu F.
      • Kayser M.
      • Krawczak M.
      Likelihood ratio and posterior odds in forensic genetics: two sides of the same coin.
      ]. We highlighted that the relationship between the predictive values of FDP and the prevalence of the investigated appearance phenotype depends upon (i) the extent to which causal factors (genetic and environmental) of the phenotype are accounted for by the prediction model used, and (ii) the degree of inter-population variability, if any, of the remaining causal factors. In fact, if all causal factors are accounted for by the prediction model, then the predictive values would be the same in every population, irrespective of the prevalence of the phenotype in question.
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      References

        • Caliebe A.
        • Walsh S.
        • Liu F.
        • Kayser M.
        • Krawczak M.
        Likelihood ratio and posterior odds in forensic genetics: two sides of the same coin.
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        Wissenschaftlicher und rechtlicher Klärungsbedarf zur geplanten forensischen Anwendung erweiterter DNA-Analysen. Wissenschaftlliche, ethische & soziale Gesichtspunkte der Anwendung neuer Gen-Analysen im polizeilichen Ermittlungsdienst.
        2017 (Dr Matthias Wienroth, Prof Dr Veronik Lipphardt. https://stsfreiburg.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/berlin_vortrag_ausgearbeitet_final-2-mit-aktuellem.pdf (pages 7–8, Szenario 1))